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I have been giving a lot of thought to the issue of "MSP consolidation" and why I have a problem with it. To summarize, people have floated the idea that we are in the midst of an MSP consolidation period since the mid-2000s.
My gut response to these claims is that no, we are not in the middle of consolidation because of the external data showing a) new MSPs being formed on a regular and consistent basis, and b) managed services spending continues to increase. If you agree with these two data points, how could you possibly think our profession is "contracting," as the claim of MSP consolidation.
MSP Deals Are Happening
It would be incorrect to assume from my writings that I deny M&A deals are taking place; they are. Besides a few periods over the last 20 years, there has been a relatively stable deal flow with a relatively stable valuation line.
So, what would explain the perception that we are experiencing MSP consolidation? While pondering this question, it struck me that there was a very elegant explanation for these seemingly divergent viewpoints.
Attrition vs. Consolidation
It would be an easy mistake to assume that there is turmoil within the managed services profession by looking at all the discussion around M&A activity. Any casual observer would believe the industry is contracting and going through struggles.