Gartner today lowered its 2012 forecast for global IT spending. While it is still an increase from 2011, the analyst firm revised its previous 2012 forecast of 4.6 percent growth to 3.7 percent growth. Of all the IT spending categories measured, IT services is predicted to see a 3.1 percent growth this year and outside of telecom, represent the largest area of spending at $874 billion. 
Now, the unanswered question is how will this revised projection for 2012 affect managed IT services? Gartner lists a number of reasons for their downward revision including the European financial crisis and natural disasters like the Thailand floods. However, will these global problems really have a negative impact on managed IT services spending in 2012? My thinking is they will not. Here’s why.
After 2008, while overall IT spending was severely cut, managed services (including cloud) saw a dramatic increase. In fact, several analyst firms post 2008 issued predictions around managed services that saw huge increases in spending, despite the global economy and overall lowered IT spending forecasts. It should be no secret now that IT spending changes do not always equate to managed services spending changes. Yes, when IT spending increases we generally see managed services spending rise. But the contrary does not hold true because when companies slow IT spending they typically need and want to maintain the value of their existing IT assets. That can only be accomplished by existing internal IT staff and resources or by going outside the organization to a managed services provider.
We will see what the year brings but for now, with all the feedback we are hearing from MSPs, 2012 seems to be off to a strong start.